Try or Kneel

Set up any situation in the last two minutes of the first half. The model gives the expected net points (your points minus theirs, through halftime) if the offense tries to score and if it kneels. Kneeling is worth zero when it ends the half; when the defense can stop the clock, kneeling means punting, and that is valued too. On 4th down it picks pass, run, kick or punt.

Situation

Your own, or a real game that kneeled and lost by one score
Your own situation: set it up below, or tap a real game to load it with the team numbers known before that game.

Matchup

Latest season
Offense (your team)
Defense (opponent)
Pick the teams to fill in the strength numbers, QB, both kickers, fourth-down history and roof from the latest season. Everything below stays editable.

Ball on

Own 25
Line of scrimmage First-down line Field-goal range Drag on the field or use the arrow keys.

Clock

Time left at the snap, not the kickoff
2ND QTR0:25
0:00 to 2:00 (the model covers the last two minutes)

Down & distance

1st & 10
Down
Yards to go

Timeouts & score

Offense timeouts
Defense timeouts
Offense score margin
Tied
Details league averages unless you fill them in

Teams

From EPA · the Matchup fills these
Offense (weak = bottom 10% by EPA, elite = top 10%)
Opposing defense
Opposing offense
Kicker
Opposing kicker

Game details

How the drive started
Offense today (in-game EPA)
Opposing offense today
Season
Wind (mph)